First quarter jitters? Just Flip your strategy.

In the world of Hawkland (oops, I mean HAWKLAND), there seems to be 2 potential outcomes to each game. One, come out strong and perform well early...leading to a victory (albeit by generally a small margin). The other, and obviously less positive, is to putz around in the first quarter and play from behind throughout the game. You don't need me to tell you that the Hawks have taken the second route a little too often recently.

In their previous 5 games, the Hawks have been outscored by 48 in the first quarter alone. Furthermore, they haven't had a first quarter lead in any of them (tied at 30 at home against Philly is pretty close). Coming from behind is a very difficult thing to do night-in and night-out in any sport, but it might be toughest in basketball, where the game is short and any additional run by the opponent could put you away. You could say that 48 points over 5 games (just under 10 per game) could be overcome since it's the first quarter. To that, I agree. However, compound the first quarter deficit with the amount of times it has happened, and you get a recipe for disaster. The team just can't continue to overexert energy for three quarters every game and expect to make comebacks great enough to win.

But the first quarter has not been the crux. Over the past 5 games, the Hawks have been outscored by a total of 56 points at halftime, and in one of those games, they led by 8 (Houston). Notice the only victory in the past 5 games was the game in which they led at halftime. Additionally, they only once outscored their opponent in the third quarter, and that was by a mere 2 points in the Philadelphia game. Obviously, if you get outscored, you lose, but to be dominated in the early few quarters of recent games is not only demoralizing, but it puts the team in an insurmountable hole nearly every night.

So, what do they need to do to start quick? If I were coach (which I'm not, and have no business being), I would have them run all over the place. Run, Run, Run, Run. I don't care if the opponent has had time to set their defense or not. I also don't care if Josh Smith throws a terrible pass to Marvin, which rises 5 rows into the stands. Personally, I would rather a bad pass on a breakaway than an ugly jumper with 8 seconds left on the 24. The Hawks have the personnel to outrun nearly every team in the league, but over the past few games they have played slow, lethargic, boring basketball - and they've gotten beat.

Now, you could say that in each of these games, they've lost to teams with big, tall, (somewhat) dominant centers...and to that I would agree. Dwight Howard, Shquille O'Neal (and Amar'e Stoudemire), Yao Ming, and Samuel Dalembert (not so much), are all great centers. In fact, they are some of the best in the game. But even without Al Horford in the lineup, the way to beat an inside presence has always, and will always be to outrun him and drive to the basket on almost every possession. Even if you miss your attempted layup, there is the potential for a foul on the big man (not to mention the exhaustion from weighing 300 pounds and running 94 feet so many times), and I'd try and use that potential to my advantage.

To their credit, the Hawks have been attempting a fair amount of free throws...they just haven't been making them. (See prophetic previous post) Generally I would say that the free throws attempted in their recent games show that they were attacking the basket, but the fouls charged to each center leave me curious - Yao (3), Howard (4, 3), Shaq (3), Dalembert (3). Based on what I've seen (and confirmed through the box scores), the team simply isn't attacking the big man when he's in the game. Why? I'm not sure. There are, however, 3 guys on the team that seem to attack the basket more than the others - Joe Johnson, Acie Law IV, and Flip Murray.

Let's take a look at Flip Murray's +- over the past 5 games to confirm my feeling that driving to the basket consistently will help, not only with getting the opponent's big man in foul trouble, but also to spread the floor:

New Jersey, 1/2: +8 (second best on the team)
Houston, 1/3: +15 (best on the team)
Orlando, 1/7: +15 (best on the team)
Orlando, 1/9: -11 (better than all the starters...by a lot)
Philadelphia, 1/11: -5 (second best on the team)
Phoenix, 1/13: +18 (best on the team by 12)

That said, Flip should not be starting - he's perfect in the 6th or 7th man role. However, maybe the rest of the team should take notice at the energy, fire, and smarts that Flip plays with and try and model their brains to his - attack the basket, play smart, and it will open up the whole court.